Market Volatility and Scam Prevention: Key Insights and Warnings (2024)

Aug. 12, 2024

Market Volatility and Scam Prevention: Key Insights and Warnings (1)

In this episode ofMoney Matters, we'll jump into recent stock market fluctuations and key financial insights, with a special focus on protecting vulnerable populations from scams. Our guest, Brian Watson, will highlight the crucial issue of scam...

  • Show Notes
  • Transcript

In this episode ofMoney Matters, we'll jump into recent stock market fluctuations and key financial insights, with a special focus on protecting vulnerable populations from scams. Our guest, Brian Watson, will highlight the crucial issue of scam prevention, particularly for those at risk such as lonely widows and individuals seeking companionship. He will provide essential tips for identifying and avoiding sophisticated scams, including romance and cryptocurrency fraud. Additionally, we’ll explore the latest trends in the tech industry, the effects of global market changes, and practical financial planning strategies from Greenberg Financial. Don’t miss it!

Transcript

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Good morning. It's that time again. It's Money Matters Sunday morning,

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eight am. And you're right, I'm not Dean Greenberg.

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He's got to sound like him just a little bit.

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There's nobody nobody else is Dean, and nobody else can

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do this like Dean. And you know, he comes on

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in the first segment for those of you who don't know,

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it's twenty four minutes long, and he does the entire

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thing generally without notes.

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And he's looking at a wall. I remember all those

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listeners literally looking until Yeah, he's.

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Staring off in the space and talking. He does really

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well with it. He loves that monologue and.

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And he's excellent at it, and people love it and

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it's a great information. And anyway, uh, we don't have

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Dean because he's over in San Diego a wedding, and

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we don't have Todd because he's up in Seattle running

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a marathon. We don't talk a lot. Yeah, we don't

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talk a lot about Todd with his running, but he's

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quite an elite runner, qualified for the Boston Marathon next

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spring next.

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Spring, right right next bring.

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Yeah. Yeah, so that's pretty and that's pretty hard to do.

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I mean, yeah, he still last year, worked hard, got

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it at two hours and fifty three minutes this year.

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So then the Seattle Marathon, he says his goal is

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two forty six.

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Yeah, and I think, to put it in perspective, two

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years ago he ran his first marathon and it was

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like three hours and thirty minutes, So he's almost shaved

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a whole hour off of his time to this point

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in two years.

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He's a very focused young man and he is focused

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on running right now, and so we wish him nothing

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but good things today as he runs the Seattle Marathon.

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And what a crazy, crazy week in the market. Before

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we get started on that, Sebastian don't want to give

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us the disclosures. Disclosures because we have to do that.

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There we go. The show sponsored by green Brik Financial

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See Also
Specials | Vacation Rentals | Joe Lamb Jr. & AssociatesJen Eberts MSML, PHR, SHRM-SCP on LinkedIn: Outside Sales in Orlando, FLSpecials | Vacation Rentals | Joe Lamb Jr. & Associates

Group and you can listen on seven to ninety KNSD

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or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different investment products and strategies.

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Every product and strategy have some type of inherent risk,

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and we strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand the

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risk to determine whether to buy, sell, or hold. The

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show has been on air for over thirty years. The

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green Brik Financial Group is registered with the SEC and

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a member of FINRA and CIVIK. Visit our website at

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greenbrik Financial dot com some more information.

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I think if you did that again, even a little

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bit faster, you could get like one of those disclosures

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after the co commercial where you can actually.

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Yeah, no, that's like healthcare commercials. It's actually happening in

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the subjects this struggle.

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This struggle will stop you from being lazy, but it

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could kill you, right that real quick.

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Oh okay, we did have a crazy week though, I

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mean at the end of the week it really wasn't

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much changed. We've had amazing on from Thursday last Thursday,

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well two thursdays ago than Friday, and then Monday we

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dropped roughly seven percent of the NASDAK. Then the rest

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of the week Tuesday through Friday kind of just clawed

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its way back. We had a down day I think

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on Wednesday. Term negative again.

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But here's here. This describes the week. I think for me,

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this is best describes the week. Monday the S and

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P five hundred heads, worst day in nearly two years.

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Thursday the S and P five hundred head, it's best

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day in nearly two years. So there you go. So

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let me talk. I want to talk a little bit

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about what happened on because that was really kind of

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the nexus of the whole thing. What started the whole

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deal a global You were coming on Monday and there's

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a global market meltdown and you're wondering, what's going on. Oh,

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my goodness, Apparentlymber going into recession at the end of

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the world. It was caused by the Japanese market that

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had this worst day since nineteen eighty seven, if you

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can believe that. And then okay, so what's going on

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in Japan that caused that to happen is that sales

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are trailing off, dropping they headed into recession. None of

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those things. Japanese traders have been borrowing money at low

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interest rates and converting that to US dollars. It's called

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a carry trade the Bank of Japan, and the carry

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trade works only if the two currencies you're dealing with,

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the yen and the dollar, remained stable. Well, the Bank

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of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates, sending the yen higher.

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The u US, of course, is thinking about lowering industrates,

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which would send the dollar lower, and that whole trade

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just blew up and when that happened, you have to

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unwind it as quickly as you can. Has nothing Did

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it have anything to do with US corporations, with US earnings,

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US sales zero? No, It was completely a very sophisticated

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currency trade that went wrong, and that gives us a

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world of panic. You know, the market was already overvalued.

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We have a slowing economy, there's no question about that.

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We're starting to see the numbers come in. It's not recession.

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We're not in a recessionary economy. But we have a

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slowing economy and the market's adjusting for that, which it should.

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It has to adjust for it. And so that we'd

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already had that going on, and then Monday morning we

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get this thing out of Japan and oh my goodness,

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it turned what it would normally be a tour or

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three month event into a two or three day of

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the event. Yeah, so it happened very very quickly. When

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that happens, the what I call the big money, the

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hedge funds, sit back and just watch. They don't they

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don't jump in. They just kind of sit back and

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let it play itself out. And you want to keep selling,

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just keep selling. And I'm standing here with billions of

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dollars and I'm going to buy with both hands when

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you're done.

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Well, it makes me question a little bit about how

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artificial these valuations we're seeing right now in the market, because,

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like you said, right, I don't know exactly how the

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end carry trade works, but these traders are able to

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collab collaterize, collateralizer a loan from ten to one, so

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they're basically trading on margin.

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Yep.

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So what that was, we were unwinding that ten to

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one essentially, right.

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Yeah, and you're having to do it quickly. The computers

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are doing a lot.

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Of it super quickly. So again, what valuation that we

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were seeing before was made up just with that ten

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of one. It's fake, essentially, It's what I'm trying to

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get at.

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No, it has nothing to do with corporate value euation none.

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That's what I was trying to say earlier. It's a

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foreign currency trade that blew up and they had to

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unwind a lot of positions that they had on which

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is what caused the selling. I really had zero to

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do with corporate earnings or sales or prospects. Let me

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tell I want to I had more calls on Monday

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than I've been doing this a long time. I had

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more calls on Monday than I've had in quite a while,

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to the point where it was just like, Wow, this

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is amazing because we weren't really down that far. Yes,

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Monday was the worst day for the S and P

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and almost two years. I get that. Okay, I get that,

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But we were only about six seven percent off of

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the all time high, you know, so I was a

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little confused about that. Let me just a couple of things.

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Corrections in the market are a drop of ten percent

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or more, and they typically happened once a year. I

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don't think we had one last year. We haven't had

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one this year. Right. If that ten percent decline gets

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to twenty percent, is technically a bear market, and we

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see that roughly every five years. And I've heard traders

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say that the market goes up the stairs and down

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the escalator, and that's exactly right. I mean, it goes up.

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And the reason for that is fear is a much

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much stronger emotion. It's the strongest human emotion. Fear is

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much stronger emotion than greed. That's why the market goes

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up more slowly than it goes down. Being able to

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ride through something like we just went through this week

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without making mistake. Is a mistake is what asset allocation

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is all about. And we spend a great deal of

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time early in our relationship trying to make sure your

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asset allocation aligns with your wrist tolerance. It's important that

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you can hold whatever stock allocation you're comfortable through with

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through these wings. That's really important because look what happened

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this week. Let's say under you freak out and you

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want to but I got to get some cash, I

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got to, you know, And here you are on Friday,

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right back to where where we were. What are you doing?

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You know? And you really have to And that's one

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of the things I've heard people say that one of

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the biggest advantages of money the manager brings to the

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table is taking the emotion.

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It's something that you can't it's something that you can't

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really quantify.

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Yeah right, Yeah. I've determined, after decades of doing this,

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that those who sell when the market's declining will either

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never get back in, or we'll get back in at

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higher prices. The reason for that is when you're selling

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in a panic, you're not going to get back in

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until things are much much better, much much better. And

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when things are much much better, the market's much much higher.

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Yeah, until that point, Dylan, how many times do we

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we have a chart in our little planning room. How

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many times do we have a client come in or

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a prospect come in and brag about the fact that

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they sold right before two thousand and eight drop, And

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then we asked the question, when did you get back in?

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Oh?

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Yeah, yeah, what's your answer? They didn't?

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No, Well, as you get out and you're happy about it,

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but then you're so happy that you never want to

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get back in because you feel like you won, but

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then you missed out on a ten year bowl market.

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And like you won't get back in until you're really comfortable.

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And for that to happen, the market it's gonna have

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to be a lot higher.

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And if you're that uncomfortable that you got everything out

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of the markets, you're not gonna be It's gonna take

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you a lot to be comfortable to get back in

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the markets. And by that time, you're probably gonna hit

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it on the exact opposite side of when you thought

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you won. You're probably gonna hit it the highs because

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then you're thinking that it's never gonna stop, and it's

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always going to go up, and it's never going to

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come down, and that that point is when it comes down.

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And that's why we always talk about dollar cost averaging.

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Dollar cost averaging is you put in roughly a quarter

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of your total that you want to put into, say

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one stock or an ETF or a whole model of allocation.

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You put in one quarter thirty days later, another quarter

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thirty days later, another quarter and thirty days later, another quarter.

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That helps build discipline investing. It helps maybe lower the

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average cost. I mean, if you're buying in July, I

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have twenty three. If you first put your first truncheon

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in July twenty three, those next three months the markets

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are down, so you're buying down, you're lowering your average.

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Cost, and you put it in a specific amount, in

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the same amount you.

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Got one hundred grand that you're putting into one stock. Hypothetically,

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you're putting twenty five thousand dollars in one day, thirty

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days later, another twenty five thousand, thirty days later, another

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twenty five thousand and thirty days later, the final twenty

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five thousand. That is dollar cost averaging, and it's discipline investing.

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You do it day thirty every time, regardless of what's happening,

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and that's what It helps build a good habit. And

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you can also dollar cost average out of put of

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a position. Say you're tired of Nvidia, you're tired of volatility,

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made money in it. Start then you want to take money,

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and I'll start taking twenty five percent off. You have

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a ten percent position in your portfolio of Nvidia, bring

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it down twenty five percent.

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You know, yeah, I agree with one hundred percent. My

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best advice when we're going through something like this is

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trying not to watch it too closely, because, as Warren

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Buffett said, now quote pardon me, Warren Buffer said, if

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your long term investor, it doesn't really matter. In fact,

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you'd be wise to ignore shirt short term ups and

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downs in the stock market altogether. This is warm Buffett.

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If you're worried about corrections, you shouldn't known stock. That's

235
00:11:17.519 --> 00:11:20.080

from warm Buffett. And I had a couple of calls

236
00:11:20.080 --> 00:11:23.159

on Monday, and I should stop watching it, turn the

237
00:11:23.200 --> 00:11:25.679

TV off, don't don't look at your You don't need

238
00:11:25.720 --> 00:11:28.799

to look at your account balanced every single day anymore

239
00:11:28.840 --> 00:11:31.679

than you need to have your house appraised every single day.
Market Volatility and Scam Prevention: Key Insights and Warnings (2024)

FAQs

How to handle market volatility? ›

Still, it's worth remembering these long-term fundamental principles of investing, especially in difficult market environments:
  1. Invest regularly — in good and bad times. ...
  2. Avoid jumping in and out of the market. ...
  3. Maintain a diversified portfolio. ...
  4. Don't forget history. ...
  5. Talk with your financial professional.

Get More Info Here ›
What is financial market volatility and investor behavior insights from stock market fluctuations? ›

Financial Market Volatility and Investor Behavior: Insights from Stock Market Fluctuations Financial market volatility refers to the extent of price fluctuations in financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. It's a key indicator of market uncertainty and risk.

Continue Reading ›
How to mitigate market volatility risk? ›

5 steps you can take during market volatility
  1. Establish or revisit your financial plan. ...
  2. Bolster your emergency fund. ...
  3. Reassess your risk tolerance level. ...
  4. Make sure your portfolio is properly diversified. ...
  5. Talk with your financial professional.

View Details ›
Why should investors stay invested during market volatility? ›

If your diversification is still lined up with your goals, then you likely don't need to make changes and you can ride out the market volatility. If it's not, then realigning your allocation based on your goals, risk tolerance, and how long until you'll need the money will help you achieve long-term success.

View Details ›
Why is market volatility bad? ›

A highly volatile security hits new highs and lows quickly, moves erratically, and has rapid increases and dramatic falls. Because people tend to experience the pain of loss more acutely than the joy of gain, a volatile stock that moves up as often as it does down may still seem like an unnecessarily risky proposition.

Continue Reading ›
How do you Analyse market volatility? ›

Standard deviation is the most common way to measure market volatility, and traders can use Bollinger Bands to analyze standard deviation. Maximum drawdown is another way to measure stock price volatility, and it is used by speculators, asset allocators, and growth investors to limit their losses.

Find Out More ›
How can I reduce my volatility? ›

The most common way to reduce volatility is to diversify a portfolio. Some investors will hold cash as it does not track the equities market. A combination of ETFs and other index basket securities can help keep volatility low.

Show Me More ›
How can we overcome volatility problem? ›

Here are the top 5 ways one can tackle volatility in stock market
  1. Asset allocation: This is one of the famous strategies every investor must learn to balance out the fluctuation of the equity market. ...
  2. Rebalancing: ...
  3. Diversification: ...
  4. Constant Rupee plan: ...
  5. Position Size and Stop loss:
Apr 10, 2024

See Details ›
How do you deal with price volatility? ›

3 ways to mitigate price volatility
  1. Financial hedging. Financial hedging is an action that protects against adverse price movement to remove uncertainty.
  2. Supply strategies. ...
  3. Demand management.
Feb 2, 2024

Read More ›
Where to put money in a volatile market? ›

First, consider spreading your investments across the three asset classes — stocks, bonds, and short-term investments. Then, to help offset risk even more, diversify the investments within each asset class. Keep in mind, however, that diversification doesn't ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

View Details ›
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