Brewers shortstop Willy Adames is underrated considering how consistent he's been. Quietly putting together a career year, the slugging infielder matches up well against Cardinals P Sonny Gray and headlines our MLB player prop picks tonight.
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Sep 4, 2024 • 11:22 ET • 4 min read
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Milwaukee Brewers have a 10-game lead atop the NL Central but Willy Adames continues to fly under the radar despite sizzling play since the start of July.
My favoriteMLB player props for today are backing the Brewers shortstop against a pitcher he has a history of dominating.
See why I'm also betting on Bobby Witt Jr. and fading Yu Darvish alongside Adames on today's slate.
MLB props for September 4
- Witt Over 1.5 TB (-130 at bet365)
- Adames Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110 at DraftKings)
- Darvish Under 4.5 Ks (+116 at FanDuel)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1:Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
-130 at bet365
After putting together a strong sophom*ore season in 2023, Bobby Witt Jr. has raised his game to a whole other level this year. He leads the majors in batting average (.340) and ranks second with 340 total bases in 140 games.
Today, Witt and the Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians who are sending Ben Lively to the mound. Lively has a 3.92 ERA in 24 starts, with that number surging to 5.40 in six outings since the beginning of August. Lively seldom makes batters miss and he gets hit hard, ranking in the bottom 12th percentile in exit velocity and the bottom 25th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Witt has excellent reverse platoon splits, slugging .627 against righties like Lively. He also slashes an incredible .387/.440/.697 at home, where the spacious dimensions at Kauffman Stadium allow him to leg out doubles and triples.
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Prop bet #2: Willy Adames Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
+110 at DraftKings
Willy Adames is slugging .474 and leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 100 RBI while ranking second with 83 runs through 139 games. The shortstop has been red-hot since the start of July, slashing .294/.362/.574 with 46 RBI and 40 runs in 55 games.
Adames is at home today against struggling St. Louis Cardinals hurler Sonny Gray. Gray has a 5.62 ERA with an OBA of .262 in 11 starts on the road. He also has a 5.46 ERA with a .275 OBA in his last 11 starts overall.
Adames has gone 5-for-12 at the plate with six walks against Gray in his career and he's poised to be one of our top MLB picks on today's slate.
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Prop bet #3:Yu Darvish Under 4.5 strikeouts
+116 at FanDuel
Typically, San Diego Padres right-hander Yu Darvish would be poised for a productive game at home against a Detroit Tigers side that strikes out at the 10th-highest rate in MLB. However, Darvish hasn't pitched in the majors since May 29 due to multiple injuries and a family matter that resulted in a stint on the restricted list.
The 38-year-old came off the restricted list in late August before returning to the IL to finish his minor-league rehab for an elbow ailment. Even before Darvish ended up on the IL, he wasn't going deep into games, which resulted in him racking up fewer than five punchouts in four of his previous eight starts.
Darvish threw 66 pitches in a simulated game against minor leaguers last Friday, and he won't pitch deep enough into this game to go Over his strikeouts tonight.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting.He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.
You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.
Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.
